I recently shared data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealing troubling headwinds for new college graduates. As the chart below shows, their unemployment rate is now higher than the national averageāa surprising and concerning reversal.

We now have more data coming in that this trend is sticky and AI is likely to push this trend further. Uncertainty around tariffs and global trade is only one of the factors contributing to the "breaking" the bottom rung of the career ladder.
According to a Linkedin Executive, "There are growing signs that artificial intelligence poses a real threat to a substantial number of the jobs that normally serve as the first step for each new generation of young workers".1
New college graduates are about to be squeezed hard by AI. According to Kevin Aneesh Raman, chief opportunity officer at Linkedin: "Breaking first is the bottom rung of the career ladder. In tech, advanced coding tools are creeping into the tasks of writing simple code and debugging ā the ways junior developers gain experience. In law firms, junior paralegals and first-year associates who once cut their teeth on document review are handing weeks of work over to A.I. tools to complete in a matter of hours. And across retailers, A.I. chatbots and automated customer service tools are taking on duties once assigned to young associates."2
Recent reporting in the Financial Times paints a sobering picture. Job postings on Handshake, a major platform for student and graduate recruitment, fell 15 percent between July 2024 and mid-April 2025 compared to the same period the previous year. Employers initially projected a 7.3 percent increase in graduate hiring for 2025, according to a survey conducted last fall by the National Association of Colleges and Employers. But by March, that estimate had dropped sharply to just 0.6 percent.3
Some companies are delaying start dates for new hires. EY, for instance, postponed the onboarding of recent graduates in its U.S. strategy and deal advisory division, citing ongoing market uncertainty.
Guy Berger, an economist at the non-profit Burning Glass, noted that the labor market is entering a kind of stasis: businesses are pulling back on both hiring and layoffs, creating fewer openings and making it even harder for early-career workers to gain traction.
The promise of a college degree as a reliable path to upward mobility is under growing strain. The combination of economic uncertainty, shifting employer expectations, and accelerating AI adoption is eroding the entry points that once launched careers. For this generation of graduates, the challenge isnāt just finding a jobāitās finding a first step.
Aneesh Raman, āIām a LinkedIn Executive. I See the Bottom Rung of the Career Ladder Breaking,ā New York Times, May 19, 2025, https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/19/opinion/linkedin-ai-entry-level-jobs.html.
Aneesh Raman, āIām a LinkedIn Executive. I See the Bottom Rung of the Career Ladder Breaking.ā
Stephanie Stacey, āUS college graduates enter a āfreezingā labour market,ā Financial Times, May 18, 2025. https://www.ft.com/content/87a393a2-0b5d-4a20-bee5-7f9484dbd870
Scary, Al. Something along these lines could be posted on Inside Higher Ed or The Chronicle.