AI and the Coming White-Collar Bloodbath
Last week, Dario Amodei—CEO of Anthropic—issued a stark warning to Axios that should get the attention of anyone working in white-collar professions. He predicts AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs and push unemployment to 10-20% within the next one to five years.
This isn't speculation from an outsider. Amodei is building the technology he's warning about, and his company's AI systems are already demonstrating capabilities that directly threaten knowledge work across industries—from coding and legal research to financial analysis and customer service.
The question isn't whether to believe his timeline. The question is whether the early indicators are already visible. And from where I sit, tracking employment data for recent college graduates, the answer is troubling.
The Canary in the Coal Mine
Recently, I have been documenting an unprecedented shift in the job market for recent college graduates—and their experience may be signaling what's coming for white-collar work more broadly.
The numbers tell a stark story:
For the first time in at least four decades, new college graduates consistently face higher unemployment rates than the overall workforce.
As of March 2025, the "recent-grad gap" reached a record low of -1.8%. The credential that was supposed to provide a career advantage now correlates with greater joblessness.
Consider some data points which cited in earlier posts:
Job postings on Handshake (a major student recruitment platform) fell 15% between July 2024 and mid-April 2025
Employers' projected graduate hiring dropped from 7.3% to just 0.6% by March 2025
Companies like EY are delaying start dates for new hires
Even when graduates find work, 40-45% end up underemployed in jobs that don't require a degree
If recent graduates—who represent the newest cohort of white-collar workers—are facing these headwinds, it suggests broader market forces at work.
The Rush to Automation over Augmentation
What makes Amodei's warning particularly concerning is how it aligns with what we're seeing in corporate behavior. Companies aren't patiently developing AI to augment human workers—helping them be more productive and effective. Instead, they're racing toward automation—replacing human workers entirely.
This rush to automation reflects the short-term profit thinking that dominates corporate decision-making. Why invest time and resources in training AI systems to work alongside humans when you can achieve immediate cost savings by eliminating positions altogether? Add uncertainty around tariffs and trade policy, and companies are further incentivized to freeze new hires and consider shedding existing white-collar positions.
As Amodei notes, we're witnessing a shift from AI as a helpful tool to "agentic AI"—systems that can perform complete job functions independently. These aren't distant possibilities; many are already operating inside companies across industries.
The short-term economic incentive is powerful. According to Axios reporting:
”We've talked to scores of CEOs at companies of various sizes and across many industries. Every single one of them is working furiously to figure out when and how agents or other AI technology can displace human workers at scale.”1
The Scope Beyond Entry-Level
While entry-level positions deserve attention, Amodei's warning encompasses white-collar work more broadly. The types of cognitive tasks that define professional work—analysis, research, writing, problem-solving—are precisely where AI capabilities are advancing most rapidly.
We're already seeing early signals:
Microsoft cutting 6,000 workers (about 3% of the company), many engineers2
Walmart eliminating 1,500 corporate jobs in anticipation of operational changes3
CrowdStrike slashing 500 jobs, explicitly citing "AI reshaping every industry"4
Meta's Mark Zuckerberg predicting that "mid-level coders will be unnecessary soon, perhaps in this calendar year"5
These aren't just cost-cutting measures during economic uncertainty. They represent strategic shifts as companies position for an AI-enabled future.
The Timeline Question
Amodei's prediction of one to five years might seem aggressive, but the data suggests change is already underway. The employment challenges facing recent graduates may be the leading edge of broader disruption across white-collar professions.
The question isn't whether this transition will happen, but how quickly. As Amodei puts it, business adoption could "tip more and more toward automation" and "happen in a small amount of time—as little as a couple of years or less."
Companies are already making decisions—about hiring freezes, position eliminations, and AI investments—that will shape the job market over the next several years. The effects may compound faster than many expect.
Why This Deserves Attention Now
Amodei acknowledges that his warning might "sound crazy, and people just don't believe it." But the employment data for recent graduates suggests the transformation may already be underway, starting with the workers most vulnerable to displacement.
The executive who's building some of the most advanced AI systems believes the technology poses "dangerous short-term pain" and could create conditions where "20% of people don't have jobs." Combined with the employment trends already visible in the data, his warning deserves serious consideration.
Whether the timeline is two years or ten, whether the impact hits 20% of jobs or 50%, the direction seems clear. The question is whether white-collar professionals, policymakers, and institutions will start preparing for a transition that may be closer than most realize.
The early warning signs are already visible. It's time to start paying attention.
"Behind the Curtain: A white-collar bloodbath," Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen, Axios, May 28, 2025.
Ibid.
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Ibid.
Forceful story, supported by scary data. What’s to be done?