The Two-Thirds Problem: Why our Educational System Fails Most Students and How We Can Fix It
The Race to Success
In American life, college education is framed as the defining race for success. From the early years, students and families jockey for position to get the best possible start. But the real race begins in high school. Run hard, stay on track, and cross the college finish line—and you’ll earn the coveted prize: a good job, financial security, and a bright future.
It's a powerful story. But it's also outdated and increasingly out of step with reality.
First, only a third of the students who graduate from high school actually finish the race. Of those who finish and claim the best rewards, most tend to come from privileged families. They benefit from a system heavily stacked in their favor: the best schools, access to honors courses, extracurriculars, test prep, tax-advantaged savings plans, internships, alumni networks, and more. Media rankings like U.S. News & World Report magnify this college-centric ideal, reinforcing the message that this is the one true path to success.
Second, the two-thirds who don’t finish are not as lucky—less resources, fewer mentors, and more obstacles along the way. They are made to feel like outcasts, like they’ve failed at the one big race that matters.
Our education system reflects this one-track model. Success means finishing college. Anything else is framed as failure. That mindset shapes where we as a society invest our time, money, and attention—and, more tellingly, who we see as “worthy.”
Most conversations about reform take the one-track model for granted. They focus on boosting completion rates, motivating those who fall behind, offering more coaching, and boosting funding. Or, maybe more grit and growth mindset are needed.
But what if we’re asking the wrong question? What if most students were never meant to run the college race? What if they don’t want to run it to begin with? We all know “geniuses” who don’t fit the college mold and never will. What if their goals, and their potential, lie on a different path entirely?
The Two-Thirds Problem
Every year, about 17 million young people reach high school age in the U.S., most with some version of the same goal: enter and finish the college race. Or, at least that is society's expectation. They've been told this is the surest path to a better life -- and most believe it. Most run with determination. Most try. Most fail.
Only a third make it to the finish line. The remaining two-thirds are cast aside and forgotten.
This is the Two-Thirds Problem.
If we look at the US Educational Pipeline to college, roughly 13 percent don’t finish high school. Another 25 percent graduate but never enroll in college. Among those who do enroll, a large share fall off before earning a degree—17.5 percent start a bachelor’s program and don’t finish, while 11.2 percent start an associate degree and don’t finish that either. In all, 66.7 percent of students—over 11 million each year—exit the race without a college credential.
This isn’t about a handful of students slipping through the cracks. It’s the rule, not the exception. The education system, as currently designed, works for one-third of students. The rest are left behind, often with debt or fragmented credentials but no meaningful reward for their effort.
We just keep urging young people to run faster, try harder, borrow more.
But when two-thirds of participants never reach the finish line, the problem isn't with the runners. It's with our design of education.
The Finish Line Isn’t What It Used to Be
For those who do make it to the end of the college race, the promised prize is no longer what it once was.
As I detailed in a previous post, a troubling reversal has taken hold: for the first time in at least forty years, new college graduates face higher unemployment than the overall workforce. That gap reached a record low in March 2025, when recent grads were 1.8 percentage points more likely to be unemployed than the average worker.
The very credential designed to launch a career is now statistically linked to greater joblessness. And the picture darkens when we factor in underemployment, which is at 40% for recent college graduates. It’s also likely to get worse,
As the economy changes, the college premium is eroding. And colleges are slow to adapt, producing graduates trained for jobs that no longer exist, or that demand hybrid skills no traditional major provides.
This is the hard truth: the college finish line doesn’t guarantee a reward anymore. For many students, even completing the race leaves them standing on the sidelines.
Reimagining the Race
What would the world look like if we gave equal attention—and equal respect—to all students, not just those who complete the college race?
Imagine an education system built not for the fortunate few, but for everyone. One where the two-thirds who don’t have a degree aren’t seen as failures, but as people who need—and deserve—a different kind of path. A system where stackable credentials allow students to build momentum, not start over. Where technical career pathways are clearly marked, well-funded, and tightly connected to real jobs. Where becoming a certified technician, a licensed nurse, or a skilled machinist carries the same pay, dignity and social recognition we reserve for the four-year graduate.
In this world, support for all learners wouldn’t be a privilege. It would be the baseline. Advising, coaching, and financial aid wouldn’t stop at the gates of the university. They’d extend across every path that prepares students for work, life, and contribution. The wages would reflect that dignity, too.
This isn’t a utopian vision. It’s practical. The pieces already exist: community colleges aligned with local industry, apprenticeships that blend learning and earning, short programs that lead to good jobs in under a year. What’s missing isn’t ideas. It’s commitment. We haven’t made these pathways the norm—yet.
The Two-Thirds Problem isn’t just an educational failure. It’s a failure of imagination. It’s a failure of society.
It’s time to build something better—something that works for all, not just the few.
Additional Resources
For follow up, I recommend watching this recent interview (“Not Everyone Needs College”) with Randi Weingarten, the President of the American Federation of Teachers. Weingarten speaks Hari Sreenivasan of Amanpour and Company about her vision and the obstacles standing in the way.