AI and Critical Thinking: Mike Caulfield's Online Toulminator
If you’re not already following
’s substack, you’re missing out on one of the sharpest minds examining the challenges of online misinformation and propaganda. A leading expert in online information literacy, Mike is currently exploring the intersection of AI and critical thinking in education. He’s also the co-author, with Sam Wineburg, of Verified: How to Think Straight, Get Duped Less, and Make Better Decisions about What to Believe Online—a must-read for navigating today’s disinformation landscape. One of these days, I hope to have him on my podcast.Mike’s latest creation, the Online Toulminator, is an experimental tool designed to help users deconstruct and construct arguments using the Toulmin model. This post is intended to get you started with Mike’s tool. In later posts, I will share my own experiments. One can imagine students also constructing their own AI-tool to analyze and evaluate arguments.
Who Was Stephen Toulmin?
It’s named after Stephen Toulmin, a British philosopher of science and University Lecturer in Philosophy of Science at Oxford University from 1949 to 1954. Toulmin took a distinctive approach to philosophy, departing from the heavily positivist and analytic trends of his contemporaries. He was deeply influenced by Ludwig Wittgenstein’s later writings, especially their emphasis on the rhetorical and pragmatic nature of language use.
I first encountered Toulmin through Wittgenstein’s Vienna, a brilliant work of intellectual history that he co-authored with Allan Janik. Until now, thanks to Mike Caulfield, I hadn’t fully appreciated Toulmin’s contributions to language and rhetoric. The Online Toulminator is a compelling example of how AI can help deepen our understanding of critical thinking and reasoning.
What Is the Toulmin Model of Argument?
The Toulmin Model of Argument is a framework for analyzing and constructing arguments, though it is not the only model available. It excels at breaking down complex arguments into their essential components, making them easier to understand and evaluate.
The basic components of the Toulmin model include claim, grounds (evidence), and warrant, which are essential to constructing an argument. Additional components, such as backing, qualifier, and rebuttal (counterarguments), are optional but serve to strengthen the argument by providing further support, addressing limitations, and anticipating objections.
1. Claim:
This is the main point or assertion that the argument is trying to prove.
Example: “School vouchers improve educational outcomes by increasing competition among schools.”
2. Grounds (Evidence):
The facts, data, or reasoning that support the claim. These provide the foundation for the argument.
Example: “Studies show that schools in districts with voucher programs often improve performance due to increased competition.”
3. Warrant:
The reasoning or principle that connects the grounds to the claim. It explains why the evidence supports the claim and is often implicit.
Example: “Research by Chubb and Moe (1990) and more recent studies by EdChoice (2022) demonstrate that school voucher programs foster competition among schools, which motivates them to improve their educational offerings to attract and retain students.”
4. Backing:
Additional support for the warrant, providing assurance that the reasoning behind the warrant is sound.
Example: “Data from Milwaukee’s voucher program, one of the longest-running in the United States, indicates that competition correlates with higher standardized test scores in both voucher and public schools (Greene, 2001).”
5. Qualifier:
A statement that indicates the strength of the claim or acknowledges its limitations. Words like “usually,” “probably,” “in most cases,” or “under certain conditions” are common qualifiers.
Example: “In most cases, school vouchers are effective when properly regulated and supported with adequate funding.”
6. Rebuttal (Counterarguments):
Anticipated objections or exceptions to the claim, along with responses to those objections.
Example: “Critics argue that vouchers drain resources from public schools, but evidence from studies such as those conducted by Figlio and Karbownik (2016) shows that public schools also benefit from the competitive pressures created by voucher programs.”
Using the Toulminator
Caulfield suggests as prompt: “Upload or paste in a screenshot of a social media post that makes a point, presents a fact, or advances an argument and ask for an analysis.” But I have been cutting and pasting text from various statements, such as the following by Scott Bessent, Trump’s new Secretary of the Treasury.
"This is the single most important economic issue of the day," Bessent told members of the Senate Finance Committee. "This is pass-fail. If we do not fix these tax cuts, if we do not renew and extend, then we will be facing an economic calamity, and as always, with financial instability that falls on the middle and working class."
Here’s what the Toulminator came back with. I won’t post the entire output. Here is the Summary or final Verdict:
Verdict: Exaggerated and lacks evidence.
The claim rests on bold assertions that are not substantiated with direct evidence or data. While it is plausible that renewing tax cuts could affect economic stability, the connection to "economic calamity" is overstated without further backing. The suggestion that financial instability will fall disproportionately on the middle and working classes has merit but is incomplete without considering broader economic contexts and mechanisms. Additional evidence, such as specific economic analyses or historical comparisons, would be crucial to strengthen or refute these claims.
I have some quarrels with some of the statements, but that’s the point of the exercise.
Conclusion
The Online Toulminator shows how AI can help people understand and analyze arguments better. By examining the different parts of an argument—like claims and evidence—it helps users think more carefully about ideas and question their reasoning. Mike Caulfield's work builds on Stephen Toulmin's ideas while giving teachers, students, and others practical tools for understanding complex information.
The tool can help improve how we discuss and evaluate arguments, which is especially important given today's challenges with misinformation. Whether in education or public discourse, the Toulminator offers a practical way to strengthen critical thinking skills. As technology and education continue to intersect, tools like this one point toward promising developments in how we teach and practice reasoning.